European Gas Bounces in Range Amid Supply Risks

TTF edges higher today as front month bounces between about 33.4€/MWh and 38.6€/MWh since the start of last week. Low pipeline imports from Norway are expected to recover with the peak of the current maintenance season scheduled today while strike action at Chevron LNG facilities in Australia LNG is a risk to LNG supply.

• TTF OCT 23 up 1.5% at 34.07€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 1.1% at 47.75€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.4% at 50.7€/MWh
• Workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities could extend strikes from 14 Sep after strikes of up to 11 hours per day from 7-13 Sep. Chevron on Tuesday said it aims to find a suitable solution for the company, employees and the gas market.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have increased slightly to 139.7mcm/d today but the key outage at Troll was yesterday extended by one day until 8 Sep. Outages at Kollsnes and Aasta Hansteen also saw changes yesterday.
• LNG sendout to Europe is holding steady this week at about 325mcm/d on 3 Sep and still just below levels seen this time last year.
• European natural gas storage is up to 93.28% full on a 3 Sep according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 81.7%.
• The latest weather outlook is largely unchanged with above normal temperatures expected across Europe throughout the two week forecast.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara has dipped but still high at 70.4mcm/d today.