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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Easing Momentum Won’t Allay Concerns Around Persistence

EUROPEAN INFLATION
  • The ECB’s seasonally adjusted indices indicate that core inflation momentum eased a little in August but remains above 3% on a 3m/3m SAAR basis.
  • Although seasonally adjusted services prices rose a firm 0.42% M/M in June (driven in part by temporary Olympic-related effects in France), momentum moderated to 4.45% (vs 4.91% in July).
  • One month’s data is not likely to allay Governing Council hawks’ concerns around services persistence though. Executive Board member Schnabel noted today that “services inflation needs to return to a level that is consistent with underlying inflation of 2% over the medium term”, and the August flash data hasn’t shown much progress on that front.
  • Non-energy industrial goods prices were flat on a SA basis in August, though momentum rose to 0.92% (vs 0.39% prior) as price growth averaged -0.03 in March-May.

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