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EUROPEAN INFLATION: EZ Headline HICP On Knife-Edge Between 2.1-2.2% Y/Y

EUROPEAN INFLATION

Eurozone August flash headline HICP (due 1000BST/1100CET) tracks on a knife-edge between 2.1 and 2.2% Y/Y, after accounting for this morning’s higher-than-expected French and Dutch figures.

  • MNI’s current tracking of 2.14% Y/Y (2.1% rounded) assumes the Italian (1.3% Y/Y) and Portuguese (1.9% Y/Y) releases are in line with consensus. However, a one tenth upward surprise to the Italian print would be enough to tilt the EZ-wide number to 2.2% Y/Y on a rounded basis.
  • This is broadly consistent with sell-side estimates as of yesterday evening.
  • In France, flash HICP was 2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.1% cons), while it was 3.3% Y/Y (vs 3.1% cons) in the Netherlands. However, this comes after German and Spanish releases were lower than expected yesterday.
  • We also receive data from Austria (3% of the Eurozone) at 0800BST.
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