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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Sequential Services CPI Estimated Slightly Softer

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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German national level CPI data suggests core momentum accelerated in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis, MNI estimates, while services momentum declined compared to August.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core inflation to be broadly around 0.27% M/M (0.17% prior), services inflation at around 0.21% M/M (0.35% prior), and headline at around 0.10% M/M (0.00% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply core inflation broadly around 3.3%, services at around 2.6%, and headline inflation broadly around 1.2%.
  • The implied 0.21% current services inflation pace compares with a 0.32% average sequential increase YTD.
  • The decline in services momentum amid an uptick in core momentum implies higher core goods momentum.
  • All of these figures are MNI's rough estimates of the Bundesbank's seasonally-adjusted sequential figures to be published later this afternoon, which will provide more detail, including  on core goods.
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German national level CPI data suggests core momentum accelerated in September on a seasonally-adjusted basis, MNI estimates, while services momentum declined compared to August.

  • Specifically, we estimate SA core inflation to be broadly around 0.27% M/M (0.17% prior), services inflation at around 0.21% M/M (0.35% prior), and headline at around 0.10% M/M (0.00% prior).
  • In annualized terms, this would imply core inflation broadly around 3.3%, services at around 2.6%, and headline inflation broadly around 1.2%.
  • The implied 0.21% current services inflation pace compares with a 0.32% average sequential increase YTD.
  • The decline in services momentum amid an uptick in core momentum implies higher core goods momentum.
  • All of these figures are MNI's rough estimates of the Bundesbank's seasonally-adjusted sequential figures to be published later this afternoon, which will provide more detail, including  on core goods.