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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain Core Below Cons, Headline Higher on Energy Base Effect

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Spain’s November preliminary HICP came in in line with expectations on the yearly rate at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 1.8% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.0% M/M (vs 0.1% cons; 0.4% prior). The national CPI came in slightly above expectations on the yearly rate at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 1.8% prior) and in line with consensus on the sequential comparison at 0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.6% prior).

  • Core CPI declined vs October, contrary to expectations, coming in at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.5% prior).
  • The headline rate was driven upward by a base effect on electricity and fuel prices, INE adds.
  • Ahead of the release, some analysts had expected a core uptick on the back of the end of a public transport scheme - this appears to have been dominated by other factors to the downside.
  • Overall, there is little colour in the release, so for full detail, especially on services prices, we will have to await the final data.
  • For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.
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Spain’s November preliminary HICP came in in line with expectations on the yearly rate at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 1.8% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.0% M/M (vs 0.1% cons; 0.4% prior). The national CPI came in slightly above expectations on the yearly rate at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.3% cons; 1.8% prior) and in line with consensus on the sequential comparison at 0.2% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; 0.6% prior).

  • Core CPI declined vs October, contrary to expectations, coming in at 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.5% prior).
  • The headline rate was driven upward by a base effect on electricity and fuel prices, INE adds.
  • Ahead of the release, some analysts had expected a core uptick on the back of the end of a public transport scheme - this appears to have been dominated by other factors to the downside.
  • Overall, there is little colour in the release, so for full detail, especially on services prices, we will have to await the final data.
  • For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.