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European Prices Ease On Ample Inventories But Watching Norway

LNG
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European LNG prices fell just over 3% on Monday to EUR 38.59 after a high of EUR 39.96 early in the session. While the market remains sensitive to supply disruptions, Europe’s storage levels are elevated and well ahead of schedule. The market continues to watch Norwegian maintenance with flows down 20%.

  • The euro area HCOB August manufacturing PMI was unchanged from July at 45.8 signalling a continued contraction in industrial activity which has been ongoing for over two years. The weakness in this sector has added to soft natural gas demand.
  • Bloomberg data is showing that LNG at sea for over 30 days rose to close to 2.2mn tonnes at the end of last week, well above the seasonal average. The increase has been driven by elevated inventories and continued weak industrial usage, as mentioned above.
  • Turkey has come to a 10-year agreement with Shell to provide 2.9mn tonnes of LNG from 2027. It currently receives the bulk of its LNG from Russia but has decided to diversify its sources. Turkey signed a deal with ExxonMobil in May.
  • US natural gas prices rose 2.9% to $2.19. Supplies remain ample going into the bridging season between cooling and heating. Maxar forecasts are signalling cooler weather this week in the eastern US.
  • Lower-48 US production rose 1.5% y/y on Friday while demand increased 1.3% y/y.
  • North Asian prices have stabilised at an elevated level as demand has remained solid. They have rallied on disruptions in Australia and a queue of 10 vessels at Malaysia’s Bintulu export plant suggests that it could also be facing problems, according to ANZ.
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European LNG prices fell just over 3% on Monday to EUR 38.59 after a high of EUR 39.96 early in the session. While the market remains sensitive to supply disruptions, Europe’s storage levels are elevated and well ahead of schedule. The market continues to watch Norwegian maintenance with flows down 20%.

  • The euro area HCOB August manufacturing PMI was unchanged from July at 45.8 signalling a continued contraction in industrial activity which has been ongoing for over two years. The weakness in this sector has added to soft natural gas demand.
  • Bloomberg data is showing that LNG at sea for over 30 days rose to close to 2.2mn tonnes at the end of last week, well above the seasonal average. The increase has been driven by elevated inventories and continued weak industrial usage, as mentioned above.
  • Turkey has come to a 10-year agreement with Shell to provide 2.9mn tonnes of LNG from 2027. It currently receives the bulk of its LNG from Russia but has decided to diversify its sources. Turkey signed a deal with ExxonMobil in May.
  • US natural gas prices rose 2.9% to $2.19. Supplies remain ample going into the bridging season between cooling and heating. Maxar forecasts are signalling cooler weather this week in the eastern US.
  • Lower-48 US production rose 1.5% y/y on Friday while demand increased 1.3% y/y.
  • North Asian prices have stabilised at an elevated level as demand has remained solid. They have rallied on disruptions in Australia and a queue of 10 vessels at Malaysia’s Bintulu export plant suggests that it could also be facing problems, according to ANZ.