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European Storage Shows First Withdrawals of the Winter

NATURAL GAS

European natural gas storage showed the first withdrawals of the year of just 178GWh/d on 7 Nov according to GIE data. Overall storage remains above the five year average for the time of year with the switch to withdrawals delayed this year due to the warm start to winter across much of Europe.

  • High storage levels, low demand and healthy near term supply with high floating storage volumes have helped reduce the supply risks for this winter. The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows above normal temperatures next week after a brief cold spell into this weekend before cooling into the second week of the outlook.
  • LNG supply risks are also supportive of prices amid Qatar LNG maintenance and the cancellation of a cargo from Gorgon LNG in Australia.
  • The TTF Q1 2024 premium over the Dec23 contract has narrowed this week from around -3.1€/MWh on 6 Nov to -2.5€/MWh today.
  • The Q1 2024 -Q1 2025 spread has also closed slightly today to -2.44€/MWh while the Sum24-Win24 spread is around -3.45€/MWh.
    • TTF DEC 23 up 2.7% at 47€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2.6% at 48.6€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.8% at 47.26€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.1% at 50.72€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg / GIE

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