Europe’s 2023 Autumn Refinery Maintenances Below Previous Years

The European refinery maintenance schedule this autumn will be lower than in previous years to reach an offline capacity during 4Q of around 800kbpd, as refiners try to capture higher profit margins amid low fuel inventories and robust demand for gasoline and diesel according Wood Mackenzie.

• Offline capacity in Europe in the fourth quarter is set to rise by around 200kbpd quarter on quarter but around 40% below levels the same time last year and in 2019, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
• For the whole year, Woodmac forecasts average shutdowns of about 1mbpd, around 300kbpd below pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
• "In early 2023 we observed a much higher maintenance period through March and therefore would expect the autumn maintenance outlook to be lower – aligning with the typical maintenance trend that higher maintenance in spring typically indicates lower autumn maintenance," Woodmac analyst Emma Howsham said.
• In recent months refiners have also experienced bouts of unplanned maintenance, likely as a repercussion of limited maintenance throughout COVID-19 lockdowns and during record high margins last year, she said.
• "The volatility [in the oil markets] is coming from products because refining capacity is very, very tight. Lots of refineries closed during COVID and the West really doesn't have the product making capacity it needs, now that Russian exports are making their way to Asia," Vitol’s Hardy said.
• See the latest four-week European Refinery Maintenance Schedule: https://marketnews.com/europe-refinery-maintenance