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EUROZONE DATA: Euro-Coin Indicator Falls Back To 0.14 In September

EUROZONE DATA
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The Bank of Italy’s Euro-coin indicator (nowcast for EZ trend growth) fell back to 0.14 in September, after a short-lived bounce to 0.29 last month. The downtick was unsurprisingly driven by September’s weak survey data, alongside a “confirmation of the negative signs for the manufacturing cycle”.

  • The trend growth series strips out seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility, and has been in positive (albeit subdued) territory for the last seven months.
  • Bloomberg’s GDP Nowcast (which aims to estimate actual Q/Q growth, not trend growth) also fell in September to -0.23% from 0.04% prior (its third consecutive decline).
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees Q3 EZ GDP at 0.3% Q/Q, though more recent revisions appear to tilt towards 0.2% Q/Q (which is in line with the ECB’s September macroeconomic projections).
  • However, recent soft growth signals will keep downside risks to these projections at the fore. 

 

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The Bank of Italy’s Euro-coin indicator (nowcast for EZ trend growth) fell back to 0.14 in September, after a short-lived bounce to 0.29 last month. The downtick was unsurprisingly driven by September’s weak survey data, alongside a “confirmation of the negative signs for the manufacturing cycle”.

  • The trend growth series strips out seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility, and has been in positive (albeit subdued) territory for the last seven months.
  • Bloomberg’s GDP Nowcast (which aims to estimate actual Q/Q growth, not trend growth) also fell in September to -0.23% from 0.04% prior (its third consecutive decline).
  • Current Bloomberg consensus sees Q3 EZ GDP at 0.3% Q/Q, though more recent revisions appear to tilt towards 0.2% Q/Q (which is in line with the ECB’s September macroeconomic projections).
  • However, recent soft growth signals will keep downside risks to these projections at the fore.