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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
- Much has clearly been made of the rise in the US unemployment rate in Friday’s payrolls report for July, with the surprisingly high 4.25% near enough triggering the Sahm Rule (differences when calculating unrounded or rounded u/e rates aside).
- The measure lifting above 0.5 has historically been indicative of recession, although Powell in Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was keen to describe it as a “statistical regularity” rather than a rule. See more on this in the MNI Employment Insight here.
- Running this analysis across other DMs shows a similar labor market rebalancing in the UK and Australia, far greater moderation in Canada (helping the BoC to have already cut twice in June and July) but also essentially zero moderation in the Eurozone.
- The lack of a rise in Eurozone unemployment rate stands out especially if you also take into account it has seen the highest relative increases in participation rates since the pandemic.
- Eurozone participation (calculated as the inverse of the inactivity rate) stood 3pps higher in 1Q24 than it did pre-pandemic vs -1pp for the US, where the latter continues to see a reluctance of early retirees to return to the labor force.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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