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EURPLN Reaches Intraday High, Gains Still Considered Corrective

PLN
EURPLN gains stand at 0.4% on the day, though price remains shy of this week’s earlier high at 4.3595. While the most recent uptick coincides with headlines that Poland’s central bank governor cannot be tried by a special tribunal, the zloty has generally been little affected by ongoing political uncertainty.
  • The recovery in EURPLN has so far been deemed corrective from a technical perspective, with the downtrend still broadly intact. A break though the 50-day EMA at 4.3690, a level which provided firm resistance on Jan 03, would be needed to signal scope for a stronger bull cycle. Attention turns to the US inflation report as the next likely driver of short-term price action.
  • Nevertheless, the local currency has lagged its CE3 peers so far this year. PLNHUF closed below the 50-DMA last week for the first time since October. While price has since pierced back above that average, it has not closed above it. Though PLNCZK is marginally weaker YTD, the cross overall remains within close proximity to multi-year highs printed in late December.
  • CPI data provides the highlight on the local data slate next week. See our review of the NBP's latest meeting here.
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