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EURUSD: Bears Eye Lower Levels in Potential CPI Reaction

EURUSD
USGlobalCEEMEABulletMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America
  • EUR/USD edges lower through the NY crossover in particularly muted price action, re-approaching 1.1028 intraday support - and keeping the downside argument in focus ahead of tomorrow's inflation print. We see tomorrow's print as a potential tiebreaker for a 25 or 50bp rate cut, and an in-line figure would likely see implied September rates shift further toward 25bp (from 32bp at typing) and should prove USD positive.
  • 15 minute candles identify downtrendline support drawn off the Aug22 low crossing in the 1.0973 area to coincide with tomorrow's CPI print at 1330BST. A break below this mark would extend the pace of the correction off the late August high, and likely trigger a break of the bear trigger at the 50-day EMA (today at 1.0977).
  • The option expiry pipeline is tilted just marginally lower, with sizeable expiries rolling off after CPI at 1.10 (E861mln) and layered between 1.0930-50(E1.7bln).
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  • EUR/USD edges lower through the NY crossover in particularly muted price action, re-approaching 1.1028 intraday support - and keeping the downside argument in focus ahead of tomorrow's inflation print. We see tomorrow's print as a potential tiebreaker for a 25 or 50bp rate cut, and an in-line figure would likely see implied September rates shift further toward 25bp (from 32bp at typing) and should prove USD positive.
  • 15 minute candles identify downtrendline support drawn off the Aug22 low crossing in the 1.0973 area to coincide with tomorrow's CPI print at 1330BST. A break below this mark would extend the pace of the correction off the late August high, and likely trigger a break of the bear trigger at the 50-day EMA (today at 1.0977).
  • The option expiry pipeline is tilted just marginally lower, with sizeable expiries rolling off after CPI at 1.10 (E861mln) and layered between 1.0930-50(E1.7bln).