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Existing Home Sales Continue Push Back Towards Cycle Lows

US DATA
  • Existing home sales saw a larger decline than expected in July, falling -2.2% M/M (cons -0.2%) after an unrevised -3.3% M/M.
  • Sales have now fallen more than 10% since a surprise 14% surge back in February and close in on cycle lows again, hindered by a renewed increase in long-run Treasury yields and with them mortgage rates, with the 30Y conforming rate since pushing to joint highs since 2001 in weekly August data.
  • This downtrend, with the level of sales 20% below pre-pandemic levels, remains in stark contrast with new build sales back at pre-pandemic averages.

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