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Existing Home Sales Disappoint Whilst Relative Supply Is Back At Pre-Pandemic Levels

US DATA
  • Existing home sales were weaker than expected in June at 3.89m (cons 3.99m) after an unrevised 4.11m in May.
  • It sees sales fall -5.4% M/M and a fourth consecutive monthly decline worth a cumulative -11% which has more than offset the 9.5% jump back in Feb.
  • The trend better reflects the continued weakness seen in pending home sales which hit a new series low in May for data going back to 2001.
  • Latest existing home sale declines were relatively broad-based, ranging from -2% (northeast) to -8% (midwest) and with the largest region, the south, falling -6%.
  • A further uplift in the outright level of inventories meant that the months of supply increased strongly to 4.1 from 3.7 in May.
  • This non-seasonally adjusted figure compares with 3.1 in Jun’23 and 2.9 in Jun ’22, and is essentially back to pre-pandemic averages (4.2 average in 2017-19 June readings). That compares with last month’s 3.7 vs a 2017-19 average also of 4.2.
  • Impressively considering the further increase in relative supply, median price growth slowed but only from 5.2% to 4.1% Y/Y.

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