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Expectations for FQ1 ahead of today's investor / GEMM meetings (1/2)

GILTS

The DMO will hold its quarterly consultation meetings with investors (15:30) and GEMMs (17:00) today in which it will discuss more details regarding FQ1 (Apr-Jun) issuance. We set out our expectations below:

Short auctions (5 auctions)

  • 3.75% Mar-27 gilt: We pencil in 2-3 reopenings (the DMO notes at least one reopening)
  • 5-year gilt: The DMO also notes that it anticipates launching and reopening "at least once" a new 5-year (we had expected this but also expected 1-2 reopenings othe 4.50% Jun-28 gilt - we may still get one but two looks unlikely).
Medium auctions (5 auctions)
  • 4.00% Oct-31 gilt: We look for 1-2 reopenings (DMO notes "at least one")
  • 0.875% Jul-33 green gilt: 1 auction during FQ1 (in line with DMO expectations).
  • 4.625% Jan-34 gilt: We look for 2-3 reopenings (DMO looks for "at least one")
  • 3.75% Jan-38 gilt: We expect one reopening in line with the DMO's "at least one" guidance.
Medium syndication
  • DMO notes this is scheduled for June, we pencil in the W/C 10 June.
  • We think that the most likely maturity would be a new Jan-37 gilt and we look for a GBP8.5-10.0bln transaction.

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