Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We don't have a firm view on the co. Near term guidance is firm; FY (12m to March) to see continued organic +6-8% growth and margin accretion of 30-50bps (FY24 EBIT margin was 27.6%). It trades at tight end of consumer services reflecting that and the highly non-cyclical exposure; "organic growth every year since 2006".
Relx (A3/BBB+) is a similar co (information based analytics including in risk) and we see no reason Experian should command a premium to it. Relx is larger (€11b vs. €7b in sales), is running a impressive 33% EBIT margin and has similar support from recurring revenue (39% subscription). It is similar 2x levered, no explicit target outside of IG ratings, but has generally kept BS in 2-2.5x. It has left FY outlook broad for firm growth and for margin expansion - 1H was +7% and +110bps respectively for reference. Front maturity for it is a €600m May '25 - for which we expect refi.
exp. €500m 10.1Y IPT MS+130a vs. FV +95 (-35)- 31s look tad tight and trade at cash px of €90.
- Moody's upgraded it to A3 in July on solid operating performance and history of managing BS at low end of target.
- Recent performance is impressive, high recurring revenue has helped stability during downturns - i.e. a non-cyclical.
- Net leverage target is 2-2.5x vs. 1.7x at the end of March. UoP is left broad on this, only maturity this year is a Sept £500m line - as is next years single maturity. It has a '32 in sterling as well so revisit there seems(ed) more likely.
Note Loomis - a cash handling business - is also in consumer services 2-notches lower to Experian but with a 5Y IPT at +160a...
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.