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CANADA GIVING UKRAINE CAD650 MILLION OVER 3 YEARS

FED'S DALY SAYS PATIENCE IS A PRUDENT STRATEGY RIGHT NOW

MNI BRIEF: ECB “Can’t Rule Out Cuts” On Latest Info - De Cos

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Extending Post-Data Highs

US TSY FUTURES
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  • Fast two-way on wide range post-data has segued to better buying with short end outperforming as markets continue to digest stronger than expected core services CPI while goods prices contracted.
  • Dec'23 10Y futures currently +.5 at 109-28.5, session high after falling through initial support to 109-03 low post data.
  • General opinion from trading desks: this morning's data does little to change Fed's policy path (no change next week but with a hawkish tone for year end if inflation percolates higher).
  • Rate hike projections through year end: Sep 20 FOMC slips to 2.3% w/ implied rate change of +0.6bp to 5.338%. November cumulative of +10.4p at 5.436, December cumulative steady 12.4bp at 5.454%. Fed terminal at 5.455% in Jan'24.
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  • Fast two-way on wide range post-data has segued to better buying with short end outperforming as markets continue to digest stronger than expected core services CPI while goods prices contracted.
  • Dec'23 10Y futures currently +.5 at 109-28.5, session high after falling through initial support to 109-03 low post data.
  • General opinion from trading desks: this morning's data does little to change Fed's policy path (no change next week but with a hawkish tone for year end if inflation percolates higher).
  • Rate hike projections through year end: Sep 20 FOMC slips to 2.3% w/ implied rate change of +0.6bp to 5.338%. November cumulative of +10.4p at 5.436, December cumulative steady 12.4bp at 5.454%. Fed terminal at 5.455% in Jan'24.