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Fade in Risk-On Weighs on Forint

HUF
The fade in the risk-on moves across global markets has weighed on the wider EM FX basket, though the Hungarian forint has underperformed compared to its peers following weak industrial production data for November, which has raised concerns over the performance of the Hungarian economy in Q4. The gradual pullback in most benchmark equity indices of off yesterday's highs, as well as the stronger showing of the dollar against all major EMEA currencies evidence the less favourable attitude toward risk.
  • Despite HUF weakness today, EURHUF and USDHUF both remain within close proximity to their recent lows, though the former has returned back above 378.22, the Dec 14 low. Meanwhile, PLNHUF is trading back above the 50-DMA at 87.20.
  • Looking ahead, US inflation data is the next key global risk event on Thursday. Domestically, NBH minutes are scheduled for release tomorrow ahead of CPI data on Friday. Analysts see headline inflation declining from +7.9% y/y in November to +5.9% in December, which will likely facilitate another 75bp rate cut from the central bank at their next meeting on Jan 30.
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