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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Cumulative ECB hike pricing through the September meeting has been tightly rangebound between 38-42bp since June 23, seemingly in search for a pre-July meeting catalyst to tip the balance toward just one more 25bp hike, or cement a second.
- That catalyst may have arrived. The Knot comments this morning understandably haven't moved July pricing much (steady at 23.2bp), but with Sept pricing falling 2.5bp on the day, there is now only 15.5bp of hikes priced in Sept compared to July (at 38.7bp) - the least for Sept relative to July seen since mid-June.
- A further 25bp hike in Sept is very much on the fence again, in other words.
- Cumulative pricing for November points to just 43.5bp of further hikes over the next 3 meetings - a close here would be the lowest of the month.
- And overall, the 5.5bp terminal price drop would be the biggest since Jun 23, to the lowest since mid-June at 3.95% (45bp of further hikes).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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