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Falling Midwest US Gas Storage Surplus Could Boost Prices

NATGAS

Record-high summer natural gas demand across the US upper Midwest is narrowing the region's inventory surplus, tightening forward basis spreads to Henry Hub in autumn, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

  • Strong gas demand across the Midwest has this eaten into region's large inventory surplus which are about 12% above the five-year average.
  • Thanks to strong power demand, the current inventory overhang in the Midwest is now well-below the 120 Bcf, or 26%, surplus recorded in late May, EIA data shows.
  • As seasonal gas demand declines with the cooling of temperatures, relatively lower inventory levels in the Midwest could support the local spot gas market there aided by the region’s flexibility to accommodate larger storage injections if required.
  • Since the start of June, regional power burn has averaged more than 4.8 Bcf/d, outpacing last summer's prior record-high average at just 4 Bcf/d over the same period. Daily highs of 6.6 Bcf/d were also seen over two consecutive days in June.


Source: S&P Global

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