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MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 20

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Fallout From Phala Phala Scandal Weighs On Rand, Despite Firmer Stocks & Precious Metals

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Domestic political turmoil weighs on the Rand this morning, rendering it the worst EMEA performer. USD/ZAR trades at ZAR17.3210, up 1,180 pips on the day. A clean break above trendline support-turned-resistance at ZAR17.3700 would expose the 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Nov 30 sell-off/Nov 17 high of ZAR17.5411/17.5553. Conversely, bears look for a pullback under Nov 30 low of ZAR16.898.

  • The reaction to a better than expected Absa Manufacturing PMI reading was negligible. Expansion in the sector accelerated last month as the index improved to 52.6 from to breakeven 50.0 recorded in October, beating the 50.5 consensus forecast.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index sits 0.25% higher on the day, albeit its has trimmed some of its earlier advance. The precious metals subindex has surged nearly 2%, approaching multi-month highs/200-DMA, ahead of the release of U.S. PCE data.
  • South Africa's 10-year inflation breakeven rate soared to three-week highs today, reaching the peak of 6.63% before easing off to 6.54% where it sits at typing.
  • FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has resumed its rally and is poised to enter technical bull market, last trading ~1.1% higher on the session and ~21.7% above the September low. The Top40 Index has already risen >20% from the September low come yesterday's close.
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Domestic political turmoil weighs on the Rand this morning, rendering it the worst EMEA performer. USD/ZAR trades at ZAR17.3210, up 1,180 pips on the day. A clean break above trendline support-turned-resistance at ZAR17.3700 would expose the 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Nov 30 sell-off/Nov 17 high of ZAR17.5411/17.5553. Conversely, bears look for a pullback under Nov 30 low of ZAR16.898.

  • The reaction to a better than expected Absa Manufacturing PMI reading was negligible. Expansion in the sector accelerated last month as the index improved to 52.6 from to breakeven 50.0 recorded in October, beating the 50.5 consensus forecast.
  • The aggregate BBG Commodity Index sits 0.25% higher on the day, albeit its has trimmed some of its earlier advance. The precious metals subindex has surged nearly 2%, approaching multi-month highs/200-DMA, ahead of the release of U.S. PCE data.
  • South Africa's 10-year inflation breakeven rate soared to three-week highs today, reaching the peak of 6.63% before easing off to 6.54% where it sits at typing.
  • FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index has resumed its rally and is poised to enter technical bull market, last trading ~1.1% higher on the session and ~21.7% above the September low. The Top40 Index has already risen >20% from the September low come yesterday's close.