Fallout From Poor State Elections Continues For CDU Leadership

Head of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Armin Laschet's prospects of becoming the centre-right parties' candidate for chancellor in the September federal election are on the wane following a poor set of results in Sunday's state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.

• In Baden-Wurttemberg, the CDU did not lose any seats but it did see its vote share fall 2.9% to 24.1%, its lowest vote share ever in the state. The CDU had governed as the junior partner to the environmentalist Greens, which gained 11 seats and cemented its position as the largest party. The Greens' gains, combined with those for the pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP), means that the Green-CDU coalition could be jettisoned in favour of a 'traffic light coalition' between the Greens, FDP, and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).
• In Rhineland-Palatinate, the CDU already sat in opposition to a 'traffic light' coalition led by the SPD. The CDU nonethless lost four seats and recorded its lowest vote share ever in the state, down to 27.7%.
• A Civey poll carried out after the election results were released shows 73.1% of voters saying 'probably no' or 'definitely no' to the prospect of Laschet leading the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU into the September federal election. Even among CDU/CSU voters, 72.5% are opposed to his potential candidacy.
• CSU head Markus Soeder is the other leading candidate to be the CDU/CSU candidate for the chancellery. Soeder is seen as being more able to work with parties such as the Greens and is a popular figure nationally following his period governing the state of Bavaria.
• On Monday, Laschet stated that a decision would be expected at some point between 'Easter and Pentecost' (4 April-23 May).
• The selection of a CDU/CSU candidate could prove crucial. At present, a CDU-Green coalition at the federal level looks the most likely outcome of the election, but further declines in support for the CDU could see the need for the FDP to be included in a 'Jamaica coalition' with the CDU and Greens, or even opening up the prospect of a 'traffic light' or 'red-red-green' coalition (SPD, The Left, Greens) at the federal level.