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Familiar BoE Pricing Intact, No Impact From Latest Local Data

STIR

SONIA futures -0.25 to +2.0 through the blues, while BoE-dated OIS contracts are flat to a couple of bp lower.

  • ~72bp of ’24 cuts are priced, with the first 25bp cut fully discounted come the end of the June MPC.
  • A bid in EGBs will be supporting SONIA markets this morning, drivers outlined in our earlier bullet.
  • Monthly economic activity data did little for UK STIRs, yesterday's labour market data was always going to be more important.
  • A reminder that late on Tuesday we saw BoE Governor Bailey highlight reduced worry re: second-round inflation effects and continued focus on how long rates need to be kept at restrictive levels.
  • The local calendar is empty for the remainder of today, putting increased focus on wider macro risk events and headline flow.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.200+1.2
May-245.162-2.6
Jun-245.055-13.3
Aug-244.899-28.9
Sep-244.770-41.8
Nov-244.605-58.3
Dec-244.475-71.3
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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