Far-Right Freedom Party Extends Lead At Top Of Polls

The far-right nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) has extended its lead at the top of opinion polling in the two latest surveys published. Austria is not due to hold a general election until September 2024, but the uneasy governing coalition between the centre-right People's Party (OVP) of Chancellor Karl Nehammer and the environmentalist Greens remains vulnerable to internal ructions.

• Market poll: FPÖ: 29% (+8), Social Democrats (SPO): 27% (-3), ÖVP: 21% (-1), NEOS: 11%, Greens: 10% (-1), MFG: 1% (-2). +/- vs. 8-11 August 2022. Fieldwork: 2-5 December 2022. Sample size: 804
• Market/Paul Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft poll: FPÖ: 29% (+2), SPÖ: 25%, ÖVP: 21%, NEOS: 10% (-2), Greens: 9% (-1), Beer Party: 5% (+1). +/- vs. 21-30 November 2022. Fieldwork: 28 November - 7 December 2022. Sample size: 2,000
• Rising inflation, perceived mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, and high rates of immigration (exceeding those from the 2014-15 migrant crisis) have all served to dent the OVP's popularity and channel support to the FPO.
• Unlike a number of other right-wing parties in the EU, the FPO is not a relative upstart but has been in existence from 1956 and served in gov't as a junior partner on four separate occasions. However, the FPO has never been the largest party in the National Council and never served as the senior partner in gov't. Remains unclear whether the OVP would be willing to prop up an FPO-led gov't after an election.