February Elections Likely To Result In Little Change

Indonesia’s presidential election will be held on February 14 and since no single candidate is likely to get a majority a run-off is likely on June 26. Popular incumbent Widodo (Jokowi) is not allowed to run for a third time but who he endorses of the three candidates will be important given his high popularity rating. Currently Prabowo Subianto, the defence minister, is ahead in the polls.

• Prabowo has 43.7% support in the latest poll from CSIS taken between 13 and 18 December, well ahead of the other two candidates. He is standing for Gerindra, the third largest party in parliament, and even though this is not Jokowi’s party his eldest son Gibran received an age dispensation to run as Prabowo’s VP, which is being seen as support from Jokowi. Prabowo lost to Jokowi in the 2014 and 2019 elections but if he wins in 2024 there is likely to be little change.
• Ganjar is the candidate for the PDI-P, the largest party and Jokowi’s. He’s now in last place with 19.4% support in the CSIS poll, as his support has steadily declined since the end of October when the candidates became official. He has chosen a VP candidate from the large Muslim organisation Nahdlatul Ulama.
• Ganjar and Prabowo have both said that they will continue existing policies to develop Indonesia’s nickel sector and expand infrastructure including a new capital city on Borneo.
• The third candidate Anies from the Nasdem Party is a former Governor of Jakarta and is second in the CSIS poll at 26.1%. He also has a VP candidate from Nahdlatul Ulama.
• Elections for the House of Representatives, the Senate and local legislative councils will be held the same day.