February Inflation Data Coming Up (16:00GMT)

BBG Consensus: +7.61% Y/Y (Prior: +7.44%); +0.66% M/M (Prior: +0.86%)

• Based on the available weekly inflation prints Goldman Sachs expect inflation to have risen to 7.6% y/y. Despite the tightening of monetary and fiscal policy in H2-23, underlying inflationary momentum has yet to fall. They believe inflation in annualised terms will continue to rise into mid-year and peak at close to 9%. However, they also think that the economy will slow in the coming quarters given the tightening of policy.
• UniCredit say inflation is likely to have increased to around 7.7% y/y in February. They say annual inflation has probably not peaked yet, as, in March, seasonality starts to take its toll and wage growth continues to put pressure on prices. Furthermore, President Putin promised significantly more budget spending, which means that the 4% target might not be met in 2024. Given these circumstances, the CBR will likely sound even more hawkish at its next meeting.