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Fed End-2024 Rates Back At Pre-Retail Sales Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have mostly lifted overnight, aided by international factors with Australia CPI following yesterday’s CAD CPI beat.
  • July is unchanged but the Sept rate is 1bp higher and the Dec rate 2bps higher having now fully reversed last week’s post-retail sales decline.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jul, 18bp Sep, 26bp Nov, 45bp Dec and 58bp Jan.
  • There is no scheduled Fedspeak until Friday. Powell’s Sintra appearance on Tuesday starts to loom large on the Fedspeak calendar.
  • Permanent voters Bowman and Cook had the most recent say yesterday. Bowman maintained her hawkish position whilst Cook said in prepared remarks that it will be appropriate to cut rates “at some point” and talked to policy lags being real in the Q&A.

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