September 23, 2024 15:08 GMT
FED: Goolsbee - We're Hundreds Of Basis Points Above Neutral
FED
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Goolsbee: Make no doubt about it, we’re hundreds of basis points above the neutral rate. The SEP shows that it’s not just one cut. It’s important to take the long arc. If conditions continue like this, there are a lot of cuts to come over the next twelve months. There’s virtual unanimity about that. Whether the next cut is 25bp or 50bp or zero, whatever, over the next twelve months we have a long way to come down to something like neutral to try to hold the conditions where they are.
From earlier in the Q&A:
- Hybrid working has been a great positive supply development: Labor force participation is way over the line to what we’d have expected ten years ago. Prime age women have the highest participation rate ever for that group, those with a disability is by factor of three the highest ever – the introduction of hybrid work has opened some doors. It may be frustrating for our personal hiring but I actually think that’s one of the great positive supply developments that we’ve seen in the economy over the past two years.
- Referring to the Beige Book's current importance: At moments of transition like this, it’s extremely helpful and informative to go out and interact with people in real time (rather than data with a one week, month or quarter lag).
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