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Fed Implied Rates Mostly Shrug Off ADP Beat Barring Increase In Late 2024

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen very little impact since the ADP data for near-term meetings, with 4bp and 9bp cumulative hikes to a terminal 5.42% with the Nov FOMC.
  • After that the outlook is more mixed, with early 2024 meetings actually seeing rates cool somewhat before a push higher in 2H24 although that has also been trimmed in recent trade.
  • The bulk of the increase for those later contracts came before any spillover from the refunding report, with the Dec’24 implied rate +3.5bps (but treat with some caution at the thin end of the curve for volumes). ·
  • Table below.

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