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Fed Implied Terminal Pushes Back To Pre-Payrolls Level

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed higher today, more than reversing an earlier dip on dovish comments from Gov. Waller (voter). Mester (’24 voter) offered relatively more hawkish comments that the Fed may need to lift rates a bit higher, but market pricing only really pushed higher more than an hour later on few clear new headline drivers.
  • Cumulative hikes: +1.5bp for Sep (unch), +12bp to a terminal 5.45% in Nov (+2.5bp).
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 1.5bp to Dec’23, 40bp to Jun’24 (from 46bp after payrolls) and 109bp to Dec’24 (from 116bp after payrolls), with the latter closing in on recent lows of 104bp from mid-August.
  • Tomorrow sees ISM services as well as further Fed commentary including the Beige Book.
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