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FED: "Instant Answers" For Sept FOMC Meeting: Upside Risks In Dots (2/2)

FED
The remaining questions mainly focus on the Dot Plot:
  • Number of dissenters on size of rate move: No dissenters expected to the decision.
  • Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2023: MNI's Markets Team expects a 5.6% median, unch from prior. A dip to 5.4% is expected by some analysts but that would probably receive a dovish reaction.
  • Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2024: MNI expects unchanged at 4.6%. Several analysts see a potential uptick to 4.9% which would be interpreted hawkishly as it would imply the FOMC seeing fewer rate cuts next year.
  • Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025: 3.4% expected, unch from prior.
  • Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026: 2.6 / 2.9% expected. This is the first time we will get a 2026 projection - it's unlikely this will be much of a focus in this edition, as it's seen converging close to the longer-run dot.
  • Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate: 2.5% expected with several analysts seeing an uptick to 2.6% or 2.75%. 10 of 18 dots pencilled in at 2.5% and 2.375% make it possible we will see a shift in September. If it does move higher, it would be interpreted hawkishly.
  • Number of 2023 dots < 5.625%: MNI sees 7 or 8 (of 19 Dots) below 5.625%, implying that they expect no further hikes for the rest of the year. If the median drops to 5.4% (ie 5.375%) as some expect, the degree of the split within the FOMC will be closely eyed.
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities
MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 | evan.ryser@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities

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