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MNI: Canada July Budget Deficit Widens On Debt Charges

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Fed Path Sees Less Than 100bp of Cuts In 2024 Ahead Of US CPI

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed after limited spillover from a hawkish ECB sources piece from Reuters late yesterday. It consolidates yesterday’s main change being a further trimming of 2024 cuts ahead of today’s US CPI print.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1.5bp Sep, +11bp Nov, +12bp Dec to terminal 5.45%.
  • Cuts from terminal: 32bp to Jun’24 and 96bp to Dec’24. The SFRU3/Z4 spread shows a similar reading, for its least inverted since mid-March in the initial regional banking fallout otherwise at levels last seen in Nov 2022.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed after limited spillover from a hawkish ECB sources piece from Reuters late yesterday. It consolidates yesterday’s main change being a further trimming of 2024 cuts ahead of today’s US CPI print.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +1.5bp Sep, +11bp Nov, +12bp Dec to terminal 5.45%.
  • Cuts from terminal: 32bp to Jun’24 and 96bp to Dec’24. The SFRU3/Z4 spread shows a similar reading, for its least inverted since mid-March in the initial regional banking fallout otherwise at levels last seen in Nov 2022.