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FED: Powell: National Accounts Revisions Removed Downside Risks To Economy

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Powell notes that since the September meeting, the NIPA national accounts revisions have been of interest as they have removed what were once thought as downside risks to the outlook:

  • GDI had been low vs GDP, suggesting that there were downside risks - but there were very large upward GDI adjustments in the revisions, so that "removes a downside risk to the economy"
  • Additionally the upward rise in consumer incomes removed a downside risk that private consumption growth was unsustainable - another downside risk removed.
  • And the savings rate is higher - "more background that suggests spending can continue at a healthy level".
  • Powell also notes that the higher revisions imply higher productivity.
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Powell notes that since the September meeting, the NIPA national accounts revisions have been of interest as they have removed what were once thought as downside risks to the outlook:

  • GDI had been low vs GDP, suggesting that there were downside risks - but there were very large upward GDI adjustments in the revisions, so that "removes a downside risk to the economy"
  • Additionally the upward rise in consumer incomes removed a downside risk that private consumption growth was unsustainable - another downside risk removed.
  • And the savings rate is higher - "more background that suggests spending can continue at a healthy level".
  • Powell also notes that the higher revisions imply higher productivity.