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EURO-DOLLAR: Fed Powell's Cautionary tone Friday managed to provide a counter to
the USD demand, prompted by the release of stronger than forecast US NFP data.
EUR/USD had dropped to a data react low of $1.1346 only to bounce back to
$1.1418 (erasing all the data losses) before it drifted off to $1.1395 into the
close. Rate extended pullback low to $1.1389 in pre Tokyo trade, USD/JPY
influenced as traders positioned for a strong Nikkei, but this early USD demand
quickly faded as USD/JPY met decent resistance into Y108.80 before reversing
which in turn allowed EUR/USD to edge to a high of $1.1430 before it settled
around $1.1420 into Europe. Release of disappointing Germany Factory Orders data
-1.0%mm vs forecast -0.1% was countered by stronger than forecast Germany Retail
Sales(+1.4%mm vs forecast 0.4%). US Govt shutdown impasse continues but signs
over the weekend that talks have been productive. Support $1.1389, $1.1346.
Resistance $1.1430/35, $1.1450/55.
- German, French & Italian industrial output due Tue, Thu & Fri respectively.
ECB de Guindos speaks today, ECB Villeroy Thursday, ECB Mersch Friday. ECB's
account of its Dec Gov Council meeting, due Thursday.