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Fed Rate Path Consolidating The Day’s Push Higher

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have reversed most of the initial push higher as stronger than expected U.Mich consumer sentiment competed with weaker inflation expectations and a modest miss for existing home sales.
  • It nevertheless helps consolidate the day’s push higher, with the consumer confidence surprise following stronger than expected retail sales and jobless claims this week in signs the consumer is holding up well.
  • Cumulative cuts: 13bp for March (vs 19bp pre-Waller on Tuesday), 58bp for June, 102bp for Sep and 135p for Dec’24 (vs 166bp).

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