MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Fed Rate Path Modestly Higher With Jobless Claims In Focus

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit up to 2bps higher from Tuesday’s close after the Juneteenth holiday, with the 46bp of cumulative cuts for 2H24 unwinding half of Tuesday’s soft retail sales impact but keeping towards the high end for the past month.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jul (unch), 18bp Sep (+0.5bp), 27bp Nov (+1bp), 46bp Dec (+2bp) and 61bp Jan (+2bp).
  • Notable STIR flow in early London trade: SFRM4 saw a spike in activity with ~26K lots changing hands across 94.6425 & 94.6450 in a few minutes. Selling at 94.6425 came first, before ~12K lots were lifted at 94.6450 across a few clips.
  • Fedspeak is scheduled to end this week on a quiet note, with two of today’s three speakers having already spoken this week (i.e. post FOMC and CPI) and no scheduled speakers tomorrow.
  • Today:
  • 0845ET - Kashkari (non-voter) in fireside chat at Michigan Bankers Association (just Q&A). He said Sunday that it’s a “reasonable prediction” that the Fed will wait until Dec to cut rates.
  • 1600ET – Barkin (’24) on economic outlook (just Q&A). He said on Tue that he was very supportive of last week’s policy decision and needs to see more data before any changes are made to interest rates.
  • 2215ET – Daly (’24) in panel discussion on AI (just Q&A). Daly last spoke on May 28 (also on AI – an opportunity to replace, augment and create jobs) whilst her last mon pol comments were May 20 (not yet confident inflation is coming down sustainably to 2%).
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