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Fed Rate Path Off Latest Highs But Still Only 64bp Of Cuts For 2024

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have dipped off overnight night highs, following European moves, but still see an end-2024 rate notably higher than the FOMC median. A particularly light session today sees focus firmly on tomorrow’s CPI report and FOMC minutes.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp May, 13.5bp Jun, 22bp Jul, 39bp Sep and 64bp Dec.
  • Kashkari (non-voter) in a town hall after the close yesterday: the labor market is no longer “red hot” but still tight, and his base case is that inflation will continue to fall. He revealed on Thu that he wrote down two cuts this year in the March SEP.
  • Former St Louis Fed President Bullard meanwhile sees three rate cuts as the base case with the first cut justified by the data.

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