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Fed Rate Path Within Tuesday’s Range With Heavy Fedspeak Eyed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit within the middle of yesterday’s range, consolidating Monday’s shunt higher on a stronger than expected ISM manufacturing survey.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 2bp May, 16bp Jun, 24bp Jul, 41bp Sep and 68bp Dec.
  • Today sees a heavy schedule for Fedspeak, headlined by Powell on the economic outlook at 1210ET including text. His remarks are likely to followed Friday’s appearance and not stray too far from the Mar 20 FOMC press conference considering a lack of major releases in the interim. We’ll have more to say on Powell nearer the time.
  • Beyond Powell, from a mon pol angle we pick out Bostic and especially Kugler even if she speaks late in the session. Bostic has already revealed himself as one of the two dots looking for just one cut in 2024 as he is less confident on inflation than he was in Dec. Kugler meanwhile last spoke on Mar 1, saying she was optimistic disinflation progress will continue with the Fed laser-focused on bringing inflation down to 2%.
  • 0830ET - Bostic (’24) on CNBC at 0830ET
  • 0945ET - Bowman (voter) again speaks on regulatory matters at 0945ET (incl text)
  • 1200ET - Goolsbee (’25) opening remarks
  • 1210ET - Powell (voter) on economic outlook (incl text)
  • 1310ET - Barr (voter) on Community Reinvestment Act
  • 1630ET - Kugler (voter) on economic and mon pol outlook (incl text)

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