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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen a further sizeable push higher today, aided by a continued recovery in equity indices and the NY Fed’s debt report not showing anything particularly troubling for Q2 delinquencies in a further pushback of yesterday’s recession concerns-linked price action.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 45bp Sep, 77bp Nov, 106bp Dec and 127bp Jan.
- The Dec’24 implied rate has fully reversed yesterday’s initial risk-off slide and starts to retrace the initial payrolls drop. It has seen 27bp of cuts trimmed since a generally solid ISM Services report, although at 106bp of cumulative cuts it remains some way off ~89bp pre-payrolls.
- Emergency cut odds are fully back at pre-payrolls levels at just 1.5bps in the August contract.
- There haven’t been any unscheduled Fedspeak appearances today, with limited post-payrolls appearances sticking to a theme of cautioning an overreaction to a single data print.
- Scheduled Fedspeak ahead looks particularly light. Barkin (’24 voter) is potentially next of interest on Thu at 1500ET but with jobless claims data likely more of note.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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