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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight although tilt to even lower odds of a July cut but marginally higher odds of a September cut.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 20.5bp Sep, 31bp Nov, 50bp Dec and 66bp Jan.
- Fed Chair Powell speaks in front of the Senate banking committee in day one of the two-day congressional semiannual testimony. He is due to start speaking at 1000ET, with good historical precedent for his prepared remarks to be released at the same time but we wouldn’t want to rule out an earlier release.
- He stuck to the prior script at his Sintra appearance on Jul 2. The Jun 12 FOMC press conference saw guarded optimism that the FOMC would receive further good news on inflation like the fresh May CPI report, but at this stage more is required to meet the "test" for cutting rates (the other "test" is an "unexpected deterioration in labor market conditions").
- Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report saw the unemployment rate rise further to 4.05%. It probably doesn’t meet an “unexpected” deterioration on its own (which Powell has previously indicated needs to be more than a couple tenths), but the trend is starting to be more notable having increased two tenths over the latest two months and is already above where the median FOMC participant sees it ending 2024.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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