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Fed Rates Rangebound; ISM Mfg Today, Powell Tomorrow

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed from Friday’s close having lifted ahead of the weekend.
  • They remain rangebound. Last week saw them initially push a little above pre-retail sales levels on stronger international CPI readings before easing on domestic data including core PCE inflation at 0.08% M/M in May.
  • The Dec’24 rate of 4.88% is below recent highs of 4.895% and pre-CPI levels of 4.94%.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 3bp Jul, 17bp Sep, 26bp Nov, 45bp Dec and 58bp Jan.
  • ISM manufacturing headlines today’s docket. There is no Fedspeak scheduled today, with Powell’s Sintra appearance next up.

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