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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied have lifted a touch overnight, aided by NY Fed’s Williams’ interview with WSJ in which he wants to see more encouraging data in coming months (will learn a lot before September).
- The path remains within recent ranges though and with a 25bp cut still fully priced for September.
- Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jul, 26bp Sep, 42bp Nov, 64bp Dec and 82bp Jan.
- Ahead sees housing data and IP before long-awaited comments from Waller, watched to see if a voter typically at the more hawkish end of the spectrum softens his tone. Later on, we watch pricing power comments and general labor market discussions in the Fed's Beige Book.
- 0900ET - Barkin (’24) informal remarks and Q&A on the economy (no text). He said Jun 28 that the unemployment rate remains low [before it surprised higher again with 4.0% in June] and we still have work to do to curb inflation.
- 0935ET – Gov. Waller (voter) on the economic outlook (text + Q&A). He last spoke on May 24 in r*-focused remarks, noting that factors that lowered the neutral rate may reverse in the future but that he hasn’t changed his view that the neutral rate is relatively low. Before that, he said May 21 that he could consider a cut at the end of this year if data warranted it with the idea of a cut in isolation not making a lot of sense.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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