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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Having started the US session with Fed Funds implied terminal pricing seen tied between Nov and Dec, momentum has swung more to December for the first time even if the rate at ~5.45% isn’t different to recent ranges.
- Cumulative hikes: +1.5bp Sep (unch), +11bp Nov (-1bp) and +12.5bp Dec (+1bp) to a terminal 4.555%. A +1.5bp daily increase to 5.42% for January means it isn’t far off either.
- The increase in rates around the turn of the year isn’t carried later into 2024 though, with broader cut expectations keeping to recent ranges. The first cut from the current effective 5.33% is near fully priced for Jun’24, equivalent to 37bp of cumulative cuts from terminal which builds to a cumulative 103bp to Dec’24 (again from the implied terminal).
Source: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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