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Final GDPNow Sees Q2 GDP Growth of 2.6% Vs 2.0% Consensus

US DATA
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow ends Q2 tracking at 2.6% annualized ahead of tomorrow’s official release after 2.7% in the Jul 17 update.
  • Tracking estimates have lifted in recent weeks after readings that had got as low as 1.5% in early July, leaving it again painting a stronger picture than the 2.0% per Bloomberg consensus.
  • Latest mild revisions: gross private domestic investment trimmed from 8.9% to 7.7% mostly offset by a smaller net trade drag of -0.65pps instead of -0.75pps.
  • Consumption is seen adding 1.5pp to GDP growth in Q2, accelerating from 1.0pp in Q1 having stepped down from a strong 2.16pp averaged in 2H23.
  • Changes in inventories are still seen providing a large sequential boost on the quarter, shifting from -0.4pp in Q1 to an assumed +0.85pp, in a swing that can cloud domestic demand implications when looking at the headline GDP figure.

Source: Atlanta Fed

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