MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FINANCIALS: BNP Results Solid But Insufficient To Drive Major Tightening

FINANCIALS

BNP (BNP: Baa1/A-/A+) results are solid with reasonable credit metrics and a decent pre-tax beat. There’s the potential for a small upgrade here but, with spreads that haven’t done much relative to €IG banks since last results, there’s insufficient to catalyse a meaningful tightening, in our view.

  • Credit stats: loan losses are within 1% of consensus (at 33bp, +4bp q/q), the uptick being mostly in personal finance and global banking.  Positively, non-performers are a little better (at 1.6% of loans, -10bp q/q). The CET1 ratio is 13% (marginally lower than consensus) so, overall, a solid set of figures.
  • Revenues are 3% ahead of consensus, driven by the CIB, specifically the markets business though FICC missed. This echoes the US bulge bracket and the equity focussed results there. Positive lateral for UBS, we feel. Costs have trimmed some of that revenue beat but pre-tax is still 7% better than expectations.
  • Outlook: there’s very little other than mgmt “confirms its 2024 trajectory” which is 2% revenue growth (consensus already at 4.4%), positive jaws (which is better than consensus) and loan losses of <40bp, which is better than consensus. So, there’s no explicit upgrade here.

Conf call is 1300 (London time) at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/txkwjnp7/ 

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