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FINANCIALS: BPER: Higher Beta, Consolidation Key

FINANCIALS

BPER Banca (BPEIM: Baa3/BBB- pos/BBB-) is scheduled to release results tmrw (6-Aug). One of the higher beta bank issuers this is one of the names at the centre of Italian bank consolidation thoughts. 

  • Results last time were taken badly by the equity market on small revenue and loan loss misses but CET1 was marginally ahead of expectations. Spreads didn’t diverge from peers much on the day.
  • Unipol announced (3-Jul) that it had raised its stake in BPER (to 24.62%) which is adding fuel to the fire around Italian bank consolidation, though BPER denied interest in MPS (24-Jun). Moody’s put some upgrades through during the quarter. Intesa results last week were relatively positive but there are few other laterals out yet.
  • The big spread moves of the last week (BPER +23bp, €IG banks +9bp) are mirrored in the equity and do now disguise that fact that BPER had been broadly trading with the peers prior to that. It is clearly one of the higher beta issuers we cover.
  • Revenue estimates have been pushed around 1% up since last results with EPS up 5-8%.

Results were mid afternoon last time and a conf call is scheduled for 0900 on 7-Aug.

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