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FINANCIALS: BPM Results OK, Spreads More M&A Driven, Neutral Event

FINANCIALS

Banco BPM (BAMIIM: Baa3/BB+ pos/BBB-) reported 2Q24 last night which were marginally ahead of consensus with credit stats broadly in line. Spreads performed well after last results (which were clearly better than these) but have only tracked the sector more recently. M&A speculation should continue to support but these results are no better than spread neutral, in our view. BPER results up next…

  • Credit stats: loan losses have ticked up to 45bp (from 31bp in 1Q24) but this is similar to consensus. Non-performers are marginally (8bp) better at 325bp, consensus was expecting flat. CET1 is 15.2%, around 30bp better than expectations. So, figures are broadly in line to better.
  • Revenues are 1% ahead of consensus, costs similar which leaves pre-tax around 5.5% above expectations. NII was the positive surprise here.
  • Guidance is being upgraded; EPS is up to €0.95 (from €0.90) but consensus is already well ahead of this figure (from BBG). Similarly, net income is seen close to the FY26 target of €1.5bn already – consensus is looking for €1.8bn.
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