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FINANCIALS: Caixabank: Beat With Solid Metrics, Supportive For Spreads

FINANCIALS

Caixabank (CABKSM: Baa2/BBB pos/BBB+ pos) results beat consensus (revenue-driven) and include good credit metrics and an improved NPL outlook for the year. Spreads have out-tightened €IG banks since last results but only tracked in the last month so today’s data still feels supportive, in our view.

  • Credit stats: loan losses are flat at 29bp and, with an exit rate below that figure, which is already well below consensus, this is a good beat. Non-performers are down to 2.67% (-14bp q/q), fully 20bp better than consensus. CET1 is 12.2%, only 10bp behind consensus. So, especially compared with Unicaja, good credit metrics.
  • Revenues are 3% ahead of consensus, costs are broadly in line meaning a 6% pre-tax beat. The revenue beat is both in Spain, as well as BPI in Portugal, a positive lateral for BCP results this evening after the close.
  • Guidance has been upgraded on NII (to HSD growth, from MSD) and on NPLs (indicating stable to year-end, from c.3%). There is no new share buyback apparent here, which may disappoint equity investors, we feel.

Conf call is 1030 (London time) at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/vonbqt7q 

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