FINANCIALS: ING Results Preview: Retail Is Detail

ING (INTNED: Baa1 pos/A-/A+) results are due 1-Aug. The capital markets day during the period didn’t move the market but appeared sensible. Spreads outperformed after the last set of (positive) results but have tracked the sector more recently.

• 2-May was the last operating figures from ING, which were positive with beats across the board and good credit metrics. Guidance was edged higher without a formal upgrade and a larger-than-expected buyback pleased the equity market.
• ING held a capital markets day on 17-Jun, indicating a greater focus on fee income and a new medium term (FY27) return target (of 14%), alongside some other new targets. These haven’t meaningfully moved estimates, we believe. 
• Spreads have performed well; these are 32bp tighter since last results (€IG banks -3bp) though they have tracked the peers more closely in the last month. The equity put in 6pp of outperformance since May but, again, it has tracked over the last month.
• Revenue estimates are up c.2% since 1Q24 stage, pushing earnings up 3-4%.

Results are usually around 0600 (London time) and there’s an 0800 conf call at: https://online.ing.com/2q-2024-ing-analyst-call/join/2jyf2exh