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Financials Keep Reaching New Highs Amid Rising ST Rates

CZECHIA
  • Czech financials continue to trend higher, mostly driven by the rise in ST bond yields.
  • This chart shows that despite the drastic fall in LT bond yields amid rising uncertainty over a range of risk factors (Delta variant, contracting liquidity, …), which has been flattening the Czech yield curve, financials have been mostly sensitive to rising ST rates in the past few months.
  • CNB has started a tightening cycle, raised its benchmark twice since June, and is expecting to continue to hike at each of the remaining three 2021 meetings (by 25bps) to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • This morning, economic data showed that CPI inflation rose by 3.4% YoY in July (vs. 2.9% expected), up from 2.8% the previous month.
  • Czech 2Y yield ticks higher today following the CPI release, breaking above the 1.40% level; next resistance to watch stands at 1.50%.
  • MXCZ0FN Index broke above its 2020 high last month and is currently testing its 1,153 resistance (highest level since July 2019.
  • Next key resistance to watch on the topside stands at 1,200.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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